The Effect of Climate Factors and Larvae-Free Index on Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever: A Secondary Data Analysis of Probolinggo City, 2022–2024

Authors

  • Ezzelin Agustita Sari Department of Environmental Health, Surabaya Health Polytechnic, Surabaya, East Java, Indonesia
  • Irwan Sulistio Department of Environmental Health, Surabaya Health Polytechnic, Surabaya, East Java, Indonesia
  • Marlik Marlik Department of Environmental Health, Surabaya Health Polytechnic, Surabaya, East Java, Indonesia
  • Pratiwi Hermiyanti Department of Environmental Health, Surabaya Health Polytechnic, Surabaya, East Java, Indonesia
  • Syarifah Nurhayati East Java Provincial Health Office, Surabaya, East Java, Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26630/rj.v20i2.5713

Keywords:

DHF, Temperature, Humidity, ABJ

Abstract

Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases in Probolinggo City had fluctuated over the past three years and had shown an upward trend. The number of cases increased by 45.75% in 2022, 4.48% in 2023, and 110.30% in 2024. Climatic conditions could affect the Aedes mosquito population, potentially increasing the incidence of DHF. This study aimed to analyze the influence of climatic factors and ABJ on DHF cases in Probolinggo City. This study used an ecological design and monthly secondary data from January 2022 to December 2024 (n = 36). Data on DHF cases and ABJ were obtained from the Probolinggo City Health Office, while climate factor data were obtained from the BMKG. Data analysis was performed using univariate, bivariate, and multivariate analyses via multiple linear regression with a significance level of 5% (α = 0.05). There were 946 cases of DHF in Probolinggo City from 2022 to 2024, with a peak of 111 cases in May 2024. Partial analysis showed that rainfall (p=0.643) and wind speed (p=0.213) had no significant effect, whereas Humidity (p=0.038), temperature (p=0.003), and ABJ (p=0.002) had a significant effect on DHF cases. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that ABJ, temperature, and Humidity had a significant effect on DHF cases, with a strong correlation coefficient (R = 0.826) and a coefficient of determination of 68.2% (R² = 0.682), with the equation: DHF Cases = −5.512 ABJ + 16.480 Temperature + 1.696 Humidity. DHF cases in Probolinggo City fluctuated, with DHF cases significantly influenced by Humidity, temperature, and ABJ. The results of this study were used to strengthen early warning systems and DHF control planning based on climate factors and to improve ABJ in Probolinggo City.

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Published

2026-08-30

How to Cite

Sari, E. A., Sulistio, I., Marlik, M., Hermiyanti, P., & Nurhayati, S. (2026). The Effect of Climate Factors and Larvae-Free Index on Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever: A Secondary Data Analysis of Probolinggo City, 2022–2024. Ruwa Jurai: Jurnal Kesehatan Lingkungan, 20(2), 124–132. https://doi.org/10.26630/rj.v20i2.5713

Issue

Vol. 20 No. 2 (2026)

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